The role of state, and of EU and international institutions is to provide stability.
At the global level, the answer should be in line with the more important task to ensure a rapid and efficient capacity of response for the actual and future challenges.
At the macroeconomic level it is vital lessening the negative effects of Stock Exchange worries, and backing small and medium firms in a sense to stimulate their activity by creating a proper fiscal and financial environment for the new economic reality.
The Romanian economy has been affected by the external trade channel on the basis of the high level of trade integration with the rest of UE states (roughly 70% of Romanian total trade is oriented to EU). The most affected by the actual pandemic are EU countries with highest GDP contributors to the EU budget: Germany, France, Italy and Spain. The lockdown of all these countries during March and April 2020 and the frozen of investment plans have been creating high repercussions on overall exports by channel of contagion spread on different countries Imports would be also affected by the disruptions on the Global Value Chain in the same time. Also, the process of replacing the supply parts is difficult especially for narrow specialisation developed the recent years.
A parallel between the 2008-financial crisis and the present crisis emphasizes only some features. First of all, it must be observed that the 2008-financial crisis provoked a high global threat that has been felt in the last few years after the eruption. It was difficult for developed countries especially for some UE member states (PIIGS countries especially) to solve the fiscal and debt burden. Nowadays, a new type of global threat has arisen 12 years after the 2008 financial crisis. This time, the primary source is a medical one, spreading at a global level. Still in both crisis we observe the rapidly spread worldwide even we talk about a virus or financial contagion.
We observe also that the economic effects are stronger now than in the 2008 financial crisis due to the fast contagion. The 2008-financial crisis had passed on Europe in several months and extended gradually in entire EU from USA. The EU financial system had resisted to solve the crisis and several financial programs for supporting the most affected sectors had been adopted (banking and automotive). Since September 2012 other unconventional measures have been approved by ECB. In addition, the euro zone launched the European Stability Mechanism that replaced the European Stability Fund. State aid was a practical solution at the moment of international financial eruption in EU. The EU state aid for financial sustenance totalled 1.6 trillion Euros during the last quarter of 2010. The great part of financial aid was given in the form of government guarantees for liquidity increasing that amount to 9 per cent of EU GDP. The banking recapitalisation and shares acquisition equalled almost 3 per cent of whole EU GDP, an amount of 300 billion euros respectively.
The EU guideline of adopting measures taken by Euro members states with the general task of banking functioning guarantees by the public funds in the 2008 and 2009 period has consisted of four official communications. The fiscal burden has been proved problematic especially for the business environment for a long period in the absence of financial support. The sustainability of those deficits was critical in some eurozone states, especially those that has been called PIIGS. Financial market players decided to rise the interests on loans to cover souverain debt as a consequence of continuing fiscal burden. The bond yields have been increasing after 2010 for those risky countries.
The eurozone countries signed at 7th of May 2010 an Agreement of Stability, Unity and Integrity for adopting necessary measures for fiscal criteria stipulated in the Stability and Economic Growth. All eurozone countries except Estonia and Luxembourg have agreed to adopt programmes of reduce the fiscal burden under the excessive deficit procedure triggering.
3Measures adopted by EU up to 2020. The Romanian case
The speed of contagion in the actual pandemic crisis on some EU member states has determined the necessity of adopting new state aid regulations for sustaining the most sensitive sectors. The communication on the economic aspects of Coved -19 crisis was published by European Commission on 13 March 2020 revealing the main economic financial support measures that cannot be exclusively covered entirely by the European budget. Taking into consideration the internal legislation of EU countries we notice the state aids have been used for supporting certain sectors. Since the mid of March 2020 substantial financial packages have been adopted by the governments in some states where the pandemic crisis has spread rapidly.
In Romania the main trade partners from EU, namely Germany, Italy, France and Spain have been seriously prejudiced by the pandemic crisis that already have hit the bilateral exports and imports flows. If we add the substantial global value chain disruption and the significant part of China on the intermediary inputs chain for products like microchips, auto parts and chemical products we observe a major drop of global trade in 2020. Romania among other EU member state is not so affected by the reduction of Chinese trade flows, the share of Chinese inputs on total incomes of Romanian firms being of only 2.8% that is much lower in comparison with Hungary (7.5%) and Holland (7%).
A complete landscape of the pandemic crisis impact on world economy is difficult to be assessed because is too early. The projections published by the international institutions have been changing in accordance to the volatile data. A possible economic impact could be advanced concerning the imminent economic recession not only in the euro area but overall, in the world economy. In addition, if we take into consideration the financial markets evolution it depends mostly by the supervisory and regulation
The impact of the actual pandemic crisis on the economy and financial market would be quite high after two months of lockdown for some many of the world economies. This unexpected and unorthodox measures will cause a very deep recession. Some of the international investors and experts project a slowdown similar with those from the Great Depression from the 1929-1933 period. For now, is pretty hard to estimate a valid long and medium period prognosis, having in mind the dynamic change of the real medica facts that affects directly our life. At least on short time we observe programmes of quantitative easing in many countries aiming at increase the liquidity in economies.
Returning to a new normality is a necessary step that requests a dynamic and complex flow of collecting and information processing data from the medical care, in finding a proper vaccine and the evolution of the economic increase and trade. All this change would indicate a new picture of tactical alliances with the aim of regaining the breath after the deep recession. We could estimate better the real situation of downfall only after the official economic data of world exports, imports that reflects the level of offer and demand.
Provide a brief summary of the information in the source. Explain how this information is relevant and explain that this information shows that the problem exists, that thereâ€™s an effective way to solve the problem, or that information shows ways to overcome inaction.
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